Feb is here and the fun predictions begin!

Hello the no one reading this but me. But here we are in early Feb w/all the hope and promise a new season brings even before we have the whole picture of who’s on the roster. But let’s begin w/the off season awards for most improved:

Seattle is definitely the most improved team in the league. Cliff Lee and King Felix as your 1-2 punch is devastating! Chone Figgins batting behind Ichiro spells doom for AL pitchers. Jr is said to be in the best shape in years and the winning attitude Wakamatsu brought to the table last season should be enough to approach 90 wins.
White Sox are looking strong in the Central. Peavy, Teahan, Putz, and the youth movement should provide Ozzie w/the tools. The Royals are good but unproven, Tigers are down a notch and devastated by the collapse last season. And the Twins are going to have the challenge of getting to know the new stadium-hmmmmm
In the NL I just don’t know who is dramatically better. I have theories and I will know more as time goes by. but here’s the award for most pathetic off season-NY Mets. Benji Molina, Joel Pinero, John Lackey, Roy Halliday, and countless other choices this offseason that would give the Mets fans something to care about. No serious catcher, too many pitching ???’s ugh!
so my too early to tell predictions.
Al East 1. Yankees 2. Red Sox 3. Toronto 4. Orioles 5. Rays
Central 1. White Sox 2. Royals 3. Twins 4. Tigers 5. Indians
West 1. Angels 2. Mariners 3. Rangers 4. A’s
Wild card-*Mariners
biggest surprise potential- Rangers
NL East- 1. Phillies 2. Braves 3. Marlins 4. Nationals 5. Mets
Central- 1. Cubs 2. Reds 3. Cardinals 4. Brewers 5. Pirates
West- 1. Giants 2. D-backs 3. Dodgers 4. Rockies 5. Padres
Wild card- Braves
Biggest surprise potential-Rockies
this is all a guess. it is logical but 1. we have no idea who will perform well and 2. we have no idea what mid-season acquisitions will put what teams over the top. Enjoy the season and let’s go Yankees!

watched the Mutts

ok I’m going to go ballistic on the Mets w
hen the dust settles and I hope the A holes ruining that
franchise read it, but for now…I heard Mets fans cheering
them on 18 games out down 13-4 in the 9th. Why is the tyeam
not trying? 21 walks or hit batsmen with the bases loaded
this year? Why is the lead off hitter making base running
errors that a pee wee league player wouldn’t make? Why is
this team so pathetic? Why is it that only the Mutts can’t
hit home runs in Citifield? How about the other stadiums they
played the other 81 games in? Wait. Let the team stink it up
for the next three weeks. It’s going to be damnation on this
blog.

Oh My My, Oh Hell Yes!

The Yankees win. Theeeeeeee Yankees Win!
Wow, it was just a few days ago that the talk around town was how the Yankees were 0-8 against those dreaded Red Sox this season. And ever since the “idiots” of 2004 did the unthinkable and won 4 straight with their backs to the wall and made the Yankees their B****es we’ve been dealing with gloating Red Sox fans on the trains, in the bars, in the streets, and on the comment boards. We unleash insults at the Red capped fiends infesting the streets of our fair city. And they always quirp back- We won in 2004, we won in 2007, when was it for you?
Well-we just broke your backs kids. The Yankees beat the Red Sox. 4 straight games. No curse of Big Papi’s shirt being buried in the concrete. No Manny. No more talk about anybody besides the Yankees as being the best team in the world! We got it! 6 1/2 games up. Now The Sox have to fight off Texas in the wildcard hunt. The Yankees put some mad distance between them and the rest of the division. Oh my my, oh hell yes you’ve gotta put on that party dress!
The Yankees win! Theeeeeeeeeee Yankees win!

here we go Beantown, it’s your turn

In the hours that followed the release of the Mitchell report all the talk was NY. Radomski, Clemens, Pettite, and Yankee after Met after Yankee. Before that we had Giambi. After that we had A-Rod. But in those waking hours of that fateful off season day, one thing was missing. Who on the Red Sox cheated?
Mitchell a respected lawmaker was on the Red Sox payroll. That in a nutshell looks to explain the absence of Red Sox and the burning of the Yankees. That may not be accurate, but we went through all these accusations and confirmations and denials for the past 4 or 5 years. The great dynasty of the late 90′s was tainted in most eyes, my own included.
Two or three days ago some lawyers leaked @ least 2 big names from the magical list of 2003. Manny and Papi. There is a nice little taint on that magical 2004 season. The what else/who else scenario is now in effect. What happened happened and we all need to look forward and not back. But…
Pandora’s box has been opened. NYC had Kurt Radomski. Boston has Jared Remy & Nicholas Alex Cyr. Nothing has been proven, but Cyr was stopped coming home from a party @ Josh Beckett’s house when the steroids were found. Hmmm. Why would someone drive around w/steroids if they were’t buying or selling them that night? Pure speculation, but common sence tells us something else. Was the MVP to be there? Was the first/third baseman there? Did Mike Lowell recover a little to quick? Why does Daniel Bard throw wicked hard? What is the truth?
The Red Sox and MLB don’t really want to know. “They didn’t ask much at all; they wanted to make it disappear,” Jared Remy said, according to the report. “I was never asked a question from anyone on the Red Sox — not one,”
Remy said. “You would’ve thought they would’ve asked me something, you
know?”
Looks like this is only the beginning. The media will pounce on this story. The Bloggers will disect every little nugget or inflated stat. Someone is going to be grilled by the government and the truth will come out.
In closing I want to make one point. All 30 teams are guilty. All 30 teams looked the other way. No one is innocent until the guilty are proven so. Bronson Arroyo spoke about the andro he used. Was he on the Sox in 2004? Everyone was tempted. Afraid to be beat out by the guy who juiced. Wanting a big contract. Wanting to be the greatest of all time. And if Bonds won the MVP 4 times in a row when we all knew he was cheating, should we really condemn him? Weren’t we the fans responsible on some level for the Steroid Era? The saddest part about this story is that it proves the game is not clean. Some guys just want to be the best, some guys want the fame. Some guys are going  to do whatever it takes to get the golden goose.

10 in a row! go Rockies!

I was quite surprised to see the Rockies have gone 10-0, 9-0 since I wrote the blog about 10 game winning streaks. This is the team that taught me that a 10 gamer can change everything (see 2007 Rockies) and it’s amazing to see this team grab the game by the horns and right the ship in June!
If you look at the stats I posted in the aforementioned blog about the bottom feeders of the league, the Rockies were 9.5 games out of the Wild Card. Today before the first pitch they are only 3.5 games out of the wild card! 6 games in the schedule just like that. And that is my theory tested in reality. 10 game winning streaks can save a season. Now comes the challenge.
The Rockies have 100 games to go. So long as they don’t go into a nosedive they should have a chance. 70-30 would get them in for sure, but unlike my earlier analysis of them needing to play .700 ball, it’s not necessary on June 14. But 62-38 get’s them to within striking distance of the Wild Card. 92 wins seems to be the safe number in the NL. I feel that no one is catching the Dodgers, but anything is possible. See 2007 Rockies.
So there you go. A young team on a roll making up ground in the standings. It’s only June 14 but what a great statement by the NL champs just 2 seasons ago. God I love this game!

At the quarter post… who’s going to win? the leaders!

Last blog had me scouring the bottom of the field adding 10 game winning streaks to see where a team had the potential to go. But the cream of the crop doesn’t need to add to the standings in  a litmus test to see how good they are. They are showing up just fine through the adjustment period. Bona-fide buyers at the deadline. so who are the best?

AL East-no surprises. The Yanks and Boston are duking it out. Jason Bay is having a career year and the offseason additions in the Bronx have been paying off. So what about Toronto? I think they are looking up from here on in. This is going to be a classic AL East showdown. Boston vs NY. Winner gets the division, loser gets the wild card. Both teams meet in the ALCS. Too close to call. Deadline moves will make or break these tams. Will the Sox upgrade at short? Will the Yanks solve the 8th inning relief? Is Peavy coming East? This is going to be a great f’n summer in the North East. Let’s go Yankees.
The AL Central is interesting. The Royals are going to be part of the equation, as are the Twins and White Sox. But I feel this is Detroit’s division to win or lose and they can win it with the team they have. Twins may be second, maybe the Royals will. The Sox could make a move by the break and get back into the race. Bares watching. 
Then comes the West. I really like Texas. They are in great position at the quarter mark. The Angels have weathered the early storm though and I still think they will survive and win the division. I just can’t write them off yet.

at the quarter post… the back of the pack

Ok, now we see reality. The opening months of adjustment are behind us and the runners are lining up for the first real test of the young season. Is your team a buyer or a seller? Is your team hot or for real? Did the first two months of the season leave you in a good position? Or is it over?

My picks from Feb and May were all for fun and stuff. No one could think they could pick the winners and losers in the first two months. All you could do was watch and see what team was stacking up the right way and what team was stacking up the wrong way. 
Let’s look at the bottoms of each division and add a ten game winning streak to the teams. A ten game winning streak is within the realm of possibilities for any major league team.
At the bottom of the AL East Baltimore would go from 24-30 to 34-30. 4 games over .500 would put them where Toronto is now. Are they out of it? No. Tampa Bay is .500 and would be 10 over and that is the division leader’s range. Rays fans-it’s looking good on June 5. Bottom line? This division is even better than last season.
At the bottom of the AL Central, Cleveland would be a .500 team, and KC (who I still think will win this division) would be 3 over. Neither team is out of it. Cleveland needs to get hot now, and KC is in the midsts of a long losing streak of 7 games as of today. So time is fading fast.
The AL West is the biggest surprise. I do think Texas is for real. I picked them as at least a wild card back in Feb. But it’s not because of Josh Hamilton. And that’s the surprise. They just leapfrogged w/ the Yankees for the best record in the AL. That’s a good place to be in. But this is about the bottom teams (we’ll get more into the winners in the next blog). Oakland is a shock. Although they are starting to go the right direction, I thought they’d be better. But 10 straight gets them 2 over .500 which is where the Angels stand. So it ain’t over here. And the same for Seattle. @8 over .500 they could be a contender. But as Oakland had a miserable start, Seatle had a great start and they are clearly going down at this time. Bedard and King Felix could get them back in it, so Seattle is still in a good good way. 
So the AL has no team out of it, but a few treading water. Parity exists. The AL East has a ton of talent on the lower payroll teams and they compete at the absolute highest level of play in the universe-the mighty AL East. Who are my AL picks? I really think the Angels will right the ship. Detroit is for real. The Yankees and Sox will duke it out. Will the consolation prize be October or are the Rangers going to hang tough and steal the wildcard from one of the empires? 3/4 of the season lies before us so we’ll have to watch intently!
The NL is a shock. The Cards and Brewers are playing great ball right now and all season. The Dodgers are the best team in the NL. But the losers? 
Let’s start in the NL East. Washington. Over done and quite a shame. I was thinking they would get to .500. They may lose 120! 14 wins so far. they are 24 games below .500 on June 5! That is pathetic. Manny Acta will be fired. Dunn will be traded. Nick Johnson will be traded. The Nats are sellers for sure. And what about Florida? People thought they were one of the best teams in the league in April with the 11-1 start. However, there were 2 series with Washington in there and they are 15 and 28 since then. Ten in a row gets them back on top of the division. They have proven my earlier theory that a great April gives you a shot in September. A good summer and a hot streak in September sets them up like Colorado of 2007. With good young pitching, Hanley, and some other good hitters you just can’t rule them put. They are very streaky and could steal the division. Watch out for the Marlins. Forget Washington.
The Central is a funny division. Houston is at the bottom 7 games out. But when we add 10 they would be 4 over and that is contending. Pittsburgh would be 7 over and that is right there with the tops. And the Cubs? They may get it into gear eventually but… no team is out and 4 teams are over .500 on June 5. That’s as good as the AL East! The NL Central is one of the best in Baseball again. This is where we all should be looking for the wild card. and maybe even both teams in the NLCS.
The West is won. Hands down the Dodgers locked it up. Just put the clinch mark there. There is no way Torre will let this one slip away. Think 98 Yankees here. The Rockies and Diamondbacks could only hope for the wild card. And those hopes are fading fast in Denver. 10 in a row still puts them 1 under .500. They would need to be the 07 Yankees and play .700 ball from now to the end and that is nearly impossible! And leaves nothing in the tank. On June 5, 9.5 games out of the wild card spells doom. And the Diamondbacks are only a game and a half better. But Haren, Webb, Garland as your front 3 starters gives you a legit shot at a 25-5 run and that gives you hope as long as it’s this early. And w/ Webb coming back soon….But only wild card dreams exist in this division’s eyes and it may take 90-92 wins to get you there.

What is going on W/ Ollie?

The NY Mets need to take a serious look at Oliver Perez. The track record says he’s inconsistent going from lights out to knocked out. But something else is happening.
He got lit up in the WBC. In two games he had a combined 9.45 era, pitched 6.2 innings letting up 13 hits-5 for home runs.
So far in 09 he is 1-2 in 4 games. He’s pitched 19.1 innings with 20 earned runs(9.31), 3 hr, and an average of 2 base runners per inning! What is wrong?
Well, the WBC probably had some effect on him. He is in the first year of a contract. He isn’t used to Citi Field. He’s working on a change up. It’s April.
I noticed in yesterdays game that his top speed was only 88mph! He was hitting 92-94mph in his previous 2 seasons. That is what grabbed my attention. Is there an injury that no one has caught onto yet? Is his arm strength not there yet because an incompetent pitching instructor got a hold of him in the WBC? 6 mph is the difference between dominant and lit up. There needs to be an investigation by the Mets into where the problem lies.
Ollie is one of the finest pitchers in the game when he is on. Working w/Johan will make him even better. But if he is damaged, the Mets have a problem. Let’s hope it’s just April!

now that we are 18 games in…

I was looking at the standings and thought about my February predictions. I was just imagining how it really looked. I think I guessed the Royals and Rays right so far. I didn’t see the Zach Grenke dominance coming, but I knew the Royals were competing this year. The Mets are sadly the same as the last two years. Sloppy, inconsistent and fightless. The Yankees are on a bumpy road leading to the right track. The Red Sox have to stay healthy if they are to win my attention. The Jays have to keep the offense up and they might take the east outright. The Cardinals are scary. If they keep rolling they may be in the series. The Padres? I still think they won’t be going anywhere but down. And the Giants starters flourished 1-5 recently letting up one earned run over 5 starts. How can the Angels get it rolling w/o Vlad? And Seattle shows last season to be a potential fluke.

The beauty of baseball is the way it plays out on the field. Teams build w/their needs in the offseason, make adjustments in April and May, and start the run in June. Young teams thrive in the first two months and try not to fade away in the other 4 months. It’s impossible to predict the outcome until June, then it becomes nearly impossible. Streaks, health and chemistry all need to play themselves out over a marathon of 144 more games. But it’s fun to daydream on the first day of NYC’s first taste of summer (it’s 85 today, tomorrow, etc…):
Al east Yanks, Sox, Jays, Rays, O’s
Al Central Royals, Tigers, Twins, Sox, Indians
Al West Texas, Seattle, Angels, A’s
Nl East Mets, Marlins, Phillies, Atlanta, Nats
Nl Central Cards, Cubs, Cincy, Pittsburgh, Brewers,  Stros,
Nl West Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres (at least they made my list this time!)
Anyway, the games are starting so I gotta go watch! Go Yanks!

Are you F’n kidding me?

What more can I say about The Netherlands [hang on-I’ll burn one in their honor ;-) -~
To The Netherlands cough cough cough.
What an amazing game. Think 1986 World Series game 6 amazing. The Netherlands with nearly no big leaguers holding the superstar laden Dominican Republic to no runs through 10.
The Dominican’s had a starter who cut the Netherlands down setting a record for strike outs (10 k’s/12 batters). Pedro Martinez looked great. I was so impressed with him. He should be on somebody’s roster by morning. But every time the DR threatened, NL came up big. 10 innings on the edge of your seat baseball. Living and dying w/ every pitch, I watched the classic stand off. David vs Goliath. No one willing to blink.
Then in the 11th Jose Reyes walks. The next batter drops one in front of the diving right fielder the ball goes to the wall and Reyes scores. The party was over. You can only hold professional ballplayers in check so many times. Eventually the bubble bursts.
I had to run out for a few minutes to see a friend. I came back expecting it to be over only to find The Netherlands had a runner on third w/2 outs. They were walking Russell Simon to get to a guy who struck out a couple times. Then I saw the score-1 to 1! What the f… did I miss? Wow it was a tie. You thought it was over, and Davey slayed Goliath with a ball that went off the first baseman’s glove and off to the side. The runner was safe at first and th NL won! Wow!
It reminded me of game 6 of the 1986 World series. And just like that an unlikely ralley ends with a ball that the first baseman couldn’t handle. That same feeling came over me as did when Dave Henderson hit the two run homer in extra innings that got the Shea Stadium scoreboard to prematurely congratulate the Red Sox as World Champs. And just like that-the underdog won! Surprisingly, excitingly, and miraculously. Thankfully I was there to see it. I said yesterday that WBC has been October Baseball in March. Wow!

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